Super rugby final

Yeah yeah I know,its been a while since I blogged!! Some days are spent doing other things and occassionally I get the urge to write like crazy and express my thoughts,usually elsewhere though,and my blog here is a second thought!

Anyway,this Saturday its the Super rugby final(Inaugural Super 15 final) between the Crusaders and the Reds

Lets have a look at these two sides and also see if we can bankrupt the TAB with some smart bets.

Firstly,the NZ TAB has got it wrong.The Crusaders are far too short in my opinion at $1.52 and the Reds present far better value at $2.40.This doesn't mean that I think the Reds will win,far from it.It just means that I think it will be far closer than the TAB thinks.

Why?

Firstly we have to remember that the Reds finished the round robin games a top of the table and deservedly so.The are also playing this game at home,a huge factor and with a sold out Stadium they will be up for it.

On the other hand,the Crusaders have to get over the travel factor.Timaru to Durban then back to Brisbane.Thats some serious miles!

Considering all this,I still feel that the Crusaders have hit some ominous form in recent weeks,and they are,minus Israel Dagg and possibly Andy Ellis,at full strength.And that is key.These finals are decided sometimes through acts of sheer brilliance or acts of sheer stupidity.An experienced side like the Crusaders will absorb all the pressure and relish it.

Big finals are decided up front,the engine room,where all the grunt comes from.Here the Crusaders have a decided advantage.We have heard all about Quade Cooper and the dangerous Reds backs,but with flatfoot ball or ball taken going backwards its going to be hard for them to launch attacks.The scrum and lineout dominance of the Crusaders will win them this match.

Carter v Cooper? Its a no contest.Granted,Quade Cooper has been in sensational form,but he has hardly been put under any real pressure and with the ball going forward on the dry track of Suncorp he has looked the goods.But Carter has been in the big time since 2003 and has consistantly been the worlds best number 10 in all sorts of situations.Carters poise under pressure,his ability to read the game,his pinpoint kicking game allied with solid tough defence leaves him in a class of his own.Cooper lacks the same kicking game and direction,but most telling is his noticable lack of a big defensive game.And I am sure that SBW and Robbie Fruean will have taken note!Look for some early cuts and hits down Coopers channel on Saturday night!

So now,how do we make money here?The Crusaders are at $2.80 to win by 12-. Thats good money.The other interesting bet is to take the draw at halftime or fulltime at $9.This game will be tight and a draw at halftime will be no surprise.The other interesting option that the NZ TAB have is the highest scoring half and I'd take the second half as the highest scoring half at $1.70.The first half will be all about set piece dominance and sorting each other out,hence low scoring.As for points margin,take 2 bets.The Crusaders 1-7 at $4.25 and the Crusaders 8-14 at $5.Throw $20 on those 2 and you will double your money and more.

Good Luck and Go the Crusaders!

Straight Shooter-telling it like it is